The recent announcement from Boris Johnson for the UK to prepare for a No-Deal Brexit has elicited a wide variety of reactions. Some people are horrified by the news because they were hoping for a Canada style deal to break through eventually. Some people are not happy, but they were expecting a No-Deal after years of stalling; However, diplomatically this information is significant because it officially signals an end to talks about Brexit until one side leaves their entrenched position. Many UK citizens are now pondering about the future of their home country in a post Brexit world.
An unavoidable consequence of Brexit finally happening is that the geopolitical position of the UK will be extremely diminished. The new UK will be along in a world with NAFTA, BRICS, and China’s many Southeast Asian trade relations. The UK will be forced to diplomatically hash out new deals with multiple countries while the Brexit situation lingers in the opposing negotiation teams’ mind. The Brexit situation might make other countries in the future doubt whether the UK will hold to its promises which might mean that harsher terms will be imposed; However, the issues caused by a post Brexit situation will not just be external.
In the wake of the No-Deal Brexit the possibility of Scotland and North Ireland will become a reality as both regions of the English Aisles greatly benefited from their EU memberships. The Northern Irish split would be trouble for England, but not the worst event that could take place. A Scottish exit from the UK’s union would devastate the UK due to the sheer amount of land, annual revenue, population, etc. that would instantly disappear. The splitting away of Scotland would also surround the English Aisles with European Union territory that would be hostile to the UK. A surrounded UK with no trade agreements in place would be devastating for UK influence and it would make England a joke on the world stage.
Even in a No-Deal Brexit with no split of the English Aisles, the business fallout from the lack of trade agreements could lead to a total financial fallout. Any business that previously operated in the UK due to its position as an entry to the EU market would most likely transition to Ireland. The wave of businesses pulling out of the UK could trigger a recession which would further the economic damage to England’s economy and inevitably weaken the pound. The weakening of the pound would most likely lead to all financial investments in the UK being pulled.
The UK will be a terrible position following a No-Deal Brexit and the global consequences of this would be immense. Russia would no longer have to worry about UK resistance to Russian actions on the world stage for the next few decades. The European Union would solidify its hold on member states as the Brexit situation will scare others from leaving the pact. The US would no longer see the UK as a politically strong global ally in Western Europe. Global Banking firms would cash out and retreat to Ireland.
Overall, a post Brexit world will signal the end of the UK as a great power.