The Great Rustbelt Flip: How Trump Could Lose in November

Trump’s chances of victory are looking bad in the results of many pollsters and many internet sources have been talking about the numbers nonstop. The disastrous polling results of Trump are worrying some people; However, the polling debacle of 2016 has made many people skeptical of poll-based conclusions due to the expected candidate to win the election losing the electoral college. One thing that the lower poll numbers is that Trump needs to strike gold in a key electoral region of the country leading up to the November voting day.

One region that Trump has electorally fallen behind in is the “rustbelt”. Trump currently faces the possibility of defeat in key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump previously won this region in the 2016 election with a large amount of support, so the fact that he is losing by significant amounts is worrying. The key group that Trump must try and appeal to in the last few days before the election is the white middle class voters who once rallied around Trump. The lack of support of middle ground has revealed a key weakness that the Biden campaign could exploit.

The shabby looking polling results from the “rustbelt” are a key indicator that moderates are starting to swing towards Biden and this could have major consequences for Trump’s electoral chances. A dangerous negative effect of moderate voters abandoning Trump is that battleground southern states could flip on election night which would require Trump to flip leaning blue states to stay competitive. Another terrifying effect of losing middle ground voters is that Texas or Florida, which are big electoral vote sources for Trump, could swing toward the Democrats. The possible loss of major states like Texas and Florida show that Trump’s campaign efforts may have stimulated his hardcore voting base, but at the same time pushed away moderates.

For Trump to feel safer about his second term he needs to see certain things happen within the next few days. The polling data in battleground states need to tighten up more to give Trump a better chance at retaining Republican strongholds. At least one of the three “rustbelt” states Trump is losing now needs to swing significantly towards the Republican party. Texas and Florida need to give Trump more of a lead to prevent a nightmare situation. Finally, Trump needs a boost in national polls that was expected to happen after the debate.

Overall, the Trump campaign is skating on thin ice now and they need to find safer grounds.


Sources: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

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